As we closed the month of March, we used our publicly available analysis tools to place the performance of the S&P 500 index within a historical context of market performance. In particular, we wished to better understand how S&P 500 index performance in March 2025 compared to performance in March of previous years. Moreover, since the end of March is also the end of the first quarter (Q1), we conducted similar analyses to better understand the performance of the S&P 500 index in 2025 Q1 and its place in market history.
We start with a look at the S&P 500 daily returns in March 2025. Several large single-day gains and losses were observed during the month (Figure 1). The largest single-day gain recorded in March 2025 (+2.1% on 3/14/2025) is the fifth largest single-day gain recorded since November 2022 (Figure 2). The largest single-day loss recorded in March 2025 (-2.7% on 3/10/2025) is the fifth largest single-day loss recorded since September 2022 (Figure 3).
Historically and on average, the S&P 500 index has shown positive returns in March. Figure 4 shows average monthly (January to December) returns from January 1995 to March 2025. Based on this 31-year dataset, the S&P 500 has exhibited an average return of +1.15% in March.
To delve deeper into the analysis shown in Figure 4 with a focus on the month of March, we examined the S&P 500 index performance for every March from 1995 to 2025 (Figure 5). In March 2025, the S&P 500 index had a loss of 5.75%. As shown in Figure 5, this is the worst March performance since March 2020, and the third worst March performance since March 2001.
We then looked at monthly returns of the S&P 500 index from December 2022 to March 2025 (Figure 6). Figure 6 shows that March 2025 performance is the worst performance for any month since December 2022.
Since the end of March is also the end of the first quarter (Q1), we took a look at Q1 performance in 2025 in comparison to previous quarters (Figure 7). The S&P 500 index showed 4.59% reduction in value in Q1 of 2025. Figure 7 shows that Q1 of 2025 was the worst first quarter since Q1 of 2022, and the worst performance for any quarter since Q3 of 2022.
Summary
March 2025 and Q1 of 2025 saw declines in the S&P 500 of 5.75% and 4.59%, respectively. In spite of these market losses, here is the good news! Analyzing data back to 1995, the performance of the S&P 500 index for March or for Q1 is not a predictor of S&P 500 index performance for the entire year. Going back to 1995, of the 12 years in which March had a negative return, in only 5 cases the whole year was negative. Similarly, going back to 1995, of the 10 years in which Q1 was negative, in only 5 cases the whole year was negative.
To gain additional historical insights about market index performance, use any one of our Market Index Analysis tools.
